Major international banks are signaling that gold may be headed toward one of the strongest price surges in modern history — and the UAE market is preparing accordingly. Analysts now suggest Dubai gold prices could climb from today’s levels into the AED 525–AED 589 per gram range, with some forecasts indicating the market could test AED 600 per gram by 2026.
The outlook follows a series of aggressive global projections that have surprised both investors and gold retailers.
A Forecast That Reshaped Market Expectations
Deutsche Bank has issued one of the most striking predictions so far, projecting that gold could reach USD 5,000 per ounce — roughly AED 589 per gram — within the next two years. Even conservative models from other institutions fall closer to AED 525 per gram, signaling broad alignment across the banking sector.
Other major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Bank of America, have released similar forecasts, placing gold in the USD 4,400–USD 5,000 per ounce range for the medium term. The consensus marks a major shift from earlier estimates and reinforces gold’s role as a hedge during global economic volatility.
Why Prices Are Expected to Rise
One of the strongest drivers behind the projected surge is large-scale gold accumulation by national governments. Central banks worldwide have significantly increased their reserves to reduce reliance on the US dollar — a trend often described as de-dollarization.
Global gold purchases, which stood at 853 tonnes in 2025, are expected to rise to more than 1,053 tonnes in 2026. With supply remaining relatively constrained, analysts say the fundamentals point clearly toward sustained upward pressure on prices.
Economic uncertainty, fluctuating currencies and inflation concerns are further contributing to a climate where gold continues to outperform multiple asset classes, including the US dollar itself.
What This Means for UAE Buyers
If global projections materialize, Dubai’s gold market — one of the world’s most active retail gold hubs — is likely to experience substantial price movement. The local outlook places gold within a potential range of:
- AED 466 per gram under a moderate scenario
- AED 525 per gram under strengthened global demand
- AED 589 per gram or higher if international forecasts reach their projected peak
For consumers, the impact will be felt across multiple sectors:
Jewelry Purchases
Rising gold prices typically make jewelry significantly more expensive, affecting wedding budgets and retail spending during peak seasons.
Gold Investments
Gold bars and coins may become increasingly costly to acquire — but potentially more attractive as long-term wealth protection vehicles. Many UAE buyers are already shifting toward early accumulation in anticipation of higher 2026 prices.
Market Sentiment
Retailers expect heightened buying activity during dips, as investors attempt to lock in prices before any prolonged surge.
The Bigger Picture
If gold approaches the upper end of global forecasts, Dubai’s position as a leading gold trading and retail destination will become even more prominent. With stronger demand, tighter supply conditions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the precious metal is positioned for one of its most consequential periods in recent decades.
Consumers, traders and investors in the UAE may need to reassess buying strategies ahead of potential record highs in 2026.
